Luke attended the UK URSI Festival of Radio Science meeting at the University of Manchester today, presenting his paper:
“Forecasting of low-latitude ionospheric scintillation using a physics-based model”
His talk went very well and he was awarded a Best Paper Prize from the conference.
Determining the rate of change of the virtual height associated with a specific ionosonde frequency provides a proxy for vertical plasma drift (PVPD). Anderson et al. (2004) demonstrated that PVPDs at a location on the magnetic equator between 1830 and 2000 local time (LT) can be used as an indicator for the occurrence of low-latitude ionospheric scintillation during the following night. However, the method is unable to provide significant forecast antecedence as the 1830 – 2000 LT forecast window must have begun (and ended if large PVPDs are not observed) before a forecast can be issued for that location. A further limitation is the requirement of a local ionosonde. This work proposes the adaptation of the PVPD forecasting technique to use output from a physics-based ionosphere model. Applying this technique at regularly spaced longitudes provides a computationally cheap method for global low-latitude scintillation forecasting with increased forecast antecedence and without the need for local ionosondes.